Home›Wildfire Risk›California›San Francisco County
San Francisco County, California

Wildfire risk in San Francisco County: where it is highest, and why

Wildfire risk in San Francisco County spans a wide range across the places we scored. The overall score runs from 12.7 to 61.3, with a county median of 18.8.

Before 20002000s2010s2020sCommunity
San Francisco County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail.
At a glance

Half of San Francisco County scores Low or worse

We scored 116 points across San Francisco County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 3% of them come out High, while 65% are Low. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.

High 3% · 3 of 116 points Moderate 33% · 38 of 116 points Low 65% · 75 of 116 points
Safest end we measured 12.7 near San Francisco · Low
Middle of the county 18.8 Low — half of San Francisco County is above this
Most exposed end we measured 61.3 near San Francisco · High

And the federal models agree it is a fire county

Very Low FEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 28.7 / 100
$13k / yr FEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Very Low
8.70% USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 0.97%
4.91 ft USFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 26% of the county carries burnable fuel

FEMA NRI also rates San Francisco County: all-hazards risk Very High · social vulnerability Relatively Moderate · community resilience Very High · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0000.

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.

What does your San Francisco County address score?

A county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.

Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan

Local context

What the data says about San Francisco County

Most scored points fall in the Low tier (75 points), followed by Moderate (38 points).

Only 3 points are in High, and 0 points are in Very High.

Fire record

Where the fires actually were

Since 1984, recorded wildfire perimeters in the county account for 2 acres total, and 0% of the county has burned in that period.

In the county fire statistics, the largest fire is Elcamino (1988). It is listed at 1 acre and not in the county footprint.

The most recent large fire is Lincoln (1996). It is also listed at 1 acre and not in the county footprint.

An older event, Kirby Beach (1968), is listed at 115 acres and partly in the county.

2 mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984
2 acres inside those perimeters since 1984
0.0% of the county's area, as a share of 597 km²
Lincoln 1996 most recent large fire on record
Named fires on record
  • Kirby Beach Fire1968115 acres in totalcrossed into the county
  • Prk Police Fire19785 acres
  • Lincoln Fire19961 acres
  • Elcamino Fire19881 acres

Perimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · largest on record: Elcamino 1988. Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.

Communities

Where in the county you are matters most

The only community listed here is San Francisco (population 873,965). Its median scored wildfire risk point is 23.7, above the county median of 18.8.

For county-wide context, FEMA’s National Risk Index rates San Francisco County’s wildfire risk as "Very Low" and its wildfire expected annual loss as "Very Low." In the same FEMA index, the county’s all-hazards risk rating is "Very High."

San Francisco city · 873,965 people
23.7 Low

The score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the community's own record where the source carries one.

Terrain & fuels

Terrain, vegetation and fuels

Terrain scores are mostly low in this county, with a median of 5.0. The highest terrain score, 40.0, is in San Francisco.

Vegetation and fuels are also mostly low at the median (5.0), but the highest scored location reaches 56.9 in San Francisco. These conditions contribute to why some blocks score noticeably higher than others.

5 median terrain score (max 40 near San Francisco)
5 median vegetation & fuels score (max 56.9 near San Francisco)
Fire weather

Fire weather across San Francisco County

Fire-weather scores are elevated across the scored points, with a median of 67.2. The highest scored point is 77.7 in unincorporated San Francisco County, while the low end is 66.9 near San Francisco.

Separate from fire weather, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities model reports a mean annual burn probability of 8.70% and a 90th-percentile cell value of 0.97%.

That same USFS model indicates 26.3% of the county can burn, and its mean conditional flame length is 4.91 feet.

66.9 lowest fire-weather score — near San Francisco
77.7 highest fire-weather score — near unincorporated San Francisco County
What drives it

Which part of the risk moves, and which doesn't

Risk varies even within this small county footprint. The lowest and highest overall scored points are both labeled San Francisco, which shows that risk can shift a lot across short distances.

The middle of the county’s scored points is 18.8, but the upper end reaches 61.3. For a homeowner or buyer, that means the specific location matters more than the county name alone.

Each bar is what one part of the score covers across San Francisco County, on the same 0–100 scale. A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same almost everywhere.

Terrain
5–40 highest near San Francisco
Vegetation & fuels
5–56.9 highest near San Francisco
Hazard zone
10–82.6 highest near unincorporated San Francisco County
Fire history
5–95 highest near San Francisco
Fire weather
66.9–77.7 highest near unincorporated San Francisco County
Overall score
12.7–61.3 highest near San Francisco

The tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50, Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.

Show every number behind these bars
Layer Min Median Max Lowest place Highest place Points
Terrain 5 5 40 unincorporated San Francisco County San Francisco 116
Vegetation & fuels 5 5 56.9 unincorporated San Francisco County San Francisco 116
Hazard zone 10 10 82.6 unincorporated San Francisco County unincorporated San Francisco County 116
Fire history 5 5 95 unincorporated San Francisco County San Francisco 116
Fire weather 66.9 67.2 77.7 near San Francisco unincorporated San Francisco County 116
Composite 12.7 18.8 61.3 San Francisco San Francisco 116

Independently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at 8.70% (90th percentile cell: 0.97%), with a mean conditional flame length of 4.91 ft. 26% of the 9,501 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.

Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).

CAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at 64 of the 116 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas, and most of this county is state or federal land. At 16 of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead; at the remaining 48 the hazard weight is renormalised away rather than scored as low.

116 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 100%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.

For a property

What a county range means for one address

At the property-search scale, hazard-zone scores in the county run from 10.0 to 82.6, with a median of 10.0. The highest hazard-zone score shown is in unincorporated San Francisco County.

Fire-history scores range from 5.0 to 95.0, with a median of 5.0. The highest fire-history score is in San Francisco.

Taken together with the tier counts, most locations score Low, but a smaller set of addresses reaches Moderate or High.

Across 116 sampled points in San Francisco County, the score runs from 12.7 to 61.3 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers. A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at.

Find out where your San Francisco County parcel sits

Slope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.

Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan

Coverage

ZIP codes we cover in San Francisco County

Every one of the 35 ZIP areas that touch San Francisco County — we run address-level reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and not a score for any property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.

Grouped from 15 of 35 ZIP areas — the rest had no sample point fall inside them. The community shown is the nearest mapped place to the ZIP's centre.

ZIP areas are Census 2020 ZIP Code Tabulation Areas intersecting the county boundary.

Where to go next

San Francisco County wildfire risk in context

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about San Francisco County wildfire risk

Has much of San Francisco County burned in recent decades?

No. The records here show 2 acres burned since 1984, which is 0% of the county area.

What is the most recent large fire listed for the county?

The most recent large fire is Lincoln (1996), listed at 1 acre and outside the county footprint.

What does FEMA say about county-wide wildfire risk?

FEMA’s National Risk Index rates San Francisco County’s wildfire risk as "Very Low" and its wildfire expected annual loss as "Very Low."

Are any scored locations in the Very High tier?

No. In the scored points, 0 are in Very High. Most are Low, with smaller counts in Moderate and High.

This page is generated from a San Francisco County data pack assembled on 2026-08-19 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's underwriting judgement. Data versions: fema_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020.

What does your parcel look like, layer by layer?

A county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.

Start with your address →