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San Joaquin County, California

Wildfire risk in San Joaquin County: where it is highest, and why

Wildfire risk in San Joaquin County spans a wide range across the places we scored. The county’s middle score is 23.3, with lower scores around 16.0 in Lincoln Village and higher scores up to 70.1 near Tracy.

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San Joaquin County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail.
At a glance

Half of San Joaquin County scores Low or worse

We scored 178 points across San Joaquin County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 8% of them come out High, while 64% are Low. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.

High 8% · 15 of 178 points Moderate 28% · 49 of 178 points Low 64% · 114 of 178 points
Safest end we measured 16 near Lincoln Village · Low
Middle of the county 23.3 Low — half of San Joaquin County is above this
Most exposed end we measured 70.1 near Tracy · High

And the federal models agree it is a fire county

Relatively Moderate FEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 92 / 100
$1.9M / yr FEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively Moderate
0.48% USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 1.44%
2.47 ft USFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 70% of the county carries burnable fuel

FEMA NRI also rates San Joaquin County: all-hazards risk Relatively High · social vulnerability Relatively Low · community resilience Relatively Moderate · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0032.

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.

What does your San Joaquin County address score?

A county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.

Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan

Local context

What the data says about San Joaquin County

Most scored locations fall in the Low tier, with fewer in Moderate and a smaller group in High. FEMA’s National Risk Index rates the county’s wildfire risk as Relatively Moderate, and its all-hazards risk as Relatively High.

Fire record

Where the fires actually were

Since 1984, 39,756 acres have burned in San Joaquin County across 53 mapped fire perimeters. That equals 4.4% of the county.

The largest fire in the county record here is the Corral fire in 2009 at 12,243 acres. It is also the most recent large fire in this record.

Other named fires in the county record include Midway (2006), Tesla (2005), Explosives (2009), and San Joaquin Co. (1953).

53 mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984
39,756 acres inside those perimeters since 1984
4.4% of the county's area, as a share of 3,672 km²
Corral 2009 most recent large fire on record
Named fires on record
  • Corral Fire200912,243 acres
  • Midway Fire20065,540 acres
  • Site 300 #3 Fire19847,605 acres
  • Tesla Fire20056,440 acres in totalcrossed into the county
  • Smiths Ridge Fire19514,417 acres
  • Carnegie #3 Fire19704,390 acres
  • Explosives Fire20091,989 acres
  • San Joaquin Co. Fire19532,760 acres

Perimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · largest on record: Corral 2009. Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.

Communities

Where in the county you are matters most

Among the communities listed here, Dogtown has one of the higher typical wildfire risk scores at 29.5. Tracy and Lockeford are also on the higher side at 27.4.

On the lower side, Stockton and Taft Mosswood are both at 18.3, and Morada is 19.9. Nearby places can still differ, so local checks are important when comparing homes.

Dogtown village
29.5 Moderate
Tracy city
27.4 Moderate
Lockeford village
27.4 Moderate
Peters village
26.8 Moderate
Linden village
26.2 Moderate
Farmington village
26.1 Moderate
Mountain House city
25.7 Moderate
August village
24.8 Low
Lathrop city
24.6 Low
Collierville village
24.5 Low
18 more communities in San Joaquin County
French Camp village
24.2 Low
Thornton village
23.5 Low
Waterloo village
23.3 Low
Ripon city
23.3 Low
Garden Acres village
23.3 Low
Woodbridge village
23.2 Low
Acampo village
23.1 Low
Lodi city
22.9 Low
Victor village
22.5 Low
Kennedy village
22.4 Low
Manteca city
22.2 Low
Escalon city
22 Low
Country Club village
21.7 Low
Terminous village
21.7 Low
Lincoln Village village
20.3 Low
Morada village
19.9 Low
Stockton city
18.3 Low
Taft Mosswood village
18.3 Low

The score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the community's own record where the source carries one.

Terrain & fuels

Terrain, vegetation and fuels

Terrain scores are generally lower to moderate in this county, with a county middle value of 20.0. They run from 5.0 in Mountain House to 65.0 near Tracy.

Vegetation and fuels scores are broader and often higher than terrain scores. The middle value is 40.0, with lower values around 5.0 near Dogtown and higher values up to 79.1 near Tracy.

20 median terrain score (max 65 near Tracy)
40 median vegetation & fuels score (max 79.1 near Tracy)
Fire weather

Fire weather across San Joaquin County

Fire-weather scores are consistently elevated across the county compared with some other factors. They range from 53.6 near Dogtown to 69.2 in Terminous, with a middle value of 63.0.

That tighter range means fire weather contributes to wildfire risk in many parts of the county, even where terrain or fuels are lower.

53.6 lowest fire-weather score — near Dogtown
69.2 highest fire-weather score — near Terminous
What drives it

Which part of the risk moves, and which doesn't

Risk is not even from one part of the county to another. The highest scored location is near Tracy at 70.1, while the lowest is in Lincoln Village at 16.0.

Community-level medians show the same pattern: Dogtown is higher at 29.5, while Stockton is lower at 18.3. That spread means neighborhood context can matter as much as county context.

Each bar is what one part of the score covers across San Joaquin County, on the same 0–100 scale. A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same almost everywhere.

Terrain
5–65 highest near Tracy
Vegetation & fuels
5–79.1 highest near Tracy
Hazard zone
10–90 highest near Tracy
Fire history
5–95 highest near Linden
Fire weather
53.6–69.2 highest near Terminous
Overall score
16–70.1 highest near Tracy

The tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50, Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.

Show every number behind these bars
Layer Min Median Max Lowest place Highest place Points
Terrain 5 20 65 Mountain House near Tracy 178
Vegetation & fuels 5 40 79.1 near Dogtown near Tracy 178
Hazard zone 10 10 90 near Tracy near Tracy 178
Fire history 5 5 95 near Tracy Linden 178
Fire weather 53.6 63 69.2 near Dogtown Terminous 178
Composite 16 23.3 70.1 Lincoln Village Tracy 178

Independently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at 0.48% (90th percentile cell: 1.44%), with a mean conditional flame length of 2.47 ft. 70% of the 27,868 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.

Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).

178 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 100%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.

For a property

What a county range means for one address

Hazard-zone scores vary sharply by location in this county. The middle value is 10.0, but scores reach 90.0 near Tracy.

Fire-history scores also vary a lot. The middle value is 5.0, while the highest scored location is Linden at 95.0.

The USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities model reports a mean annual burn probability of 0.48%, with a 90th-percentile cell value of 1.44%. It also shows that 69.7% of the county can burn; this burn-probability model is separate from the fire-weather score.

Across 178 sampled points in San Joaquin County, the score runs from 16 to 70.1 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers. A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at.

Find out where your San Joaquin County parcel sits

Slope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.

Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan

Coverage

ZIP codes we cover in San Joaquin County

Every one of the 50 ZIP areas that touch San Joaquin County — we run address-level reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and not a score for any property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.

Grouped from 31 of 50 ZIP areas — the rest had no sample point fall inside them. The community shown is the nearest mapped place to the ZIP's centre.

ZIP areas are Census 2020 ZIP Code Tabulation Areas intersecting the county boundary.

Where to go next

San Joaquin County wildfire risk in context

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about San Joaquin County wildfire risk

What does a Low, Moderate, or High tier mean here?

These tiers group the scored locations by wildfire risk, from Low up to Very High. In San Joaquin County, most scored locations are in Low, fewer are in Moderate, and a smaller group is in High.

What is the most recent large fire in this county record?

The most recent large fire in this record is Corral (2009), which is also the largest listed fire at 12,243 acres.

How much of San Joaquin County has burned since 1984?

39,756 acres have burned since 1984, which is 4.4% of the county.

Is the USFS burn probability the same thing as fire weather?

No. The USFS values here are a burn-probability model (0.48% mean annual burn probability, with 1.44% at the 90th-percentile cell), while fire weather is a separate score layer.

How does FEMA rate county-wide wildfire risk?

FEMA’s National Risk Index rates San Joaquin County’s wildfire risk as Relatively Moderate and its expected annual wildfire loss as Relatively Moderate.

This page is generated from a San Joaquin County data pack assembled on 2026-08-18 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's underwriting judgement. Data versions: fema_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020.

What does your parcel look like, layer by layer?

A county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.

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