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San Mateo County, California

Wildfire risk in San Mateo County: where it is highest, and why

Wildfire risk in San Mateo County spans a wide range across the places we scored. The overall scores run from 12.0 up to 69.0, with a county midpoint of 25.0. That means buyers and owners can see very different risk levels depending on neighborhood and terrain.

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San Mateo County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail.
At a glance

Half of San Mateo County scores Moderate or worse

We scored 178 points across San Mateo County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 32% of them come out High, while 50% are Low. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.

High 32% · 57 of 178 points Moderate 18% · 32 of 178 points Low 50% · 89 of 178 points
Safest end we measured 12 near East Palo Alto · Low
Middle of the county 25 Moderate — half of San Mateo County is above this
Most exposed end we measured 69 near Pescadero · High

And the federal models agree it is a fire county

Relatively Moderate FEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 92 / 100
$2.2M / yr FEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively Moderate
0.17% USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 0.36%
1.94 ft USFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 44% of the county carries burnable fuel

FEMA NRI also rates San Mateo County: all-hazards risk Relatively High · social vulnerability Relatively Low · community resilience Very High · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0016.

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.

What does your San Mateo County address score?

A county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.

Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan

Local context

What the data says about San Mateo County

Most scored locations fell in the Low tier, with 89 locations there. FEMA’s National Risk Index rates county-wide wildfire risk as Relatively Moderate, while its county-wide all-hazards rating is Relatively High.

A separate national burn-probability view also shows that some fire exposure exists in much of the county footprint. It lists a mean annual burn probability of 0.17% and says 44.2% of the county can burn under that model.

Fire record

Where the fires actually were

Since 1984, 2,063 acres have burned in San Mateo County, across 28 mapped fire perimeters. That equals 0.4% of the county.

The largest fire in this county record is Cloverdale Vmp (2010), at 404 acres. The most recent large fire is Whipple (2023).

Older incidents in the fire list include Lincoln Hill (1962), which is listed as partly in the county at 3,236 acres. Several other named burns in the list are marked as outside the county boundary.

28 mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984
2,063 acres inside those perimeters since 1984
0.4% of the county's area, as a share of 1,909.8 km²
Whipple 2023 most recent large fire on record
Named fires on record
  • Lincoln Hill Fire19623,236 acres in totalcrossed into the county
  • Crocker Estate #16 Fire19641,544 acres
  • Leib Fire19621,328 acres
  • Cloverdale Vmp Fire2010404 acres
  • highlands fuel reduction Fire2015290 acres
  • Crocker #6 Fire1962370 acres
  • Quarry Fire2008211 acres
  • 2017 Broadcast Burn Fire2017128 acres

Perimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · largest on record: Cloverdale Vmp 2010. Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.

Communities

Where in the county you are matters most

Among larger cities, Pacifica is higher at 31.0 than San Mateo at 21.0 and Daly City at 18.8. That gap helps explain why county averages can feel different from street-level conditions.

Several smaller communities score much higher than many big cities: Woodside is 58.0, Portola Valley is 55.5, and Half Moon Bay is 50.9.

Lower community medians appear in Foster City at 12.0 and in both Burlingame and Brisbane at 12.8. So within one county, wildfire risk can shift from low to substantially higher over a short distance.

Woodside village · 5,509 people
58 High
El Granada village
56 High
Portola Valley village · 4,353 people
55.5 High
Millbrae town · 21,536 people
55.4 High
La Honda village
53.3 High
Half Moon Bay town · 12,308 people
50.9 High
Hillsborough town · 10,825 people
46.3 Moderate
Pescadero village
42.9 Moderate
Ladera village
35.5 Moderate
Montara village
32 Moderate
18 more communities in San Mateo County
Pacifica town · 37,327 people
31 Moderate
Belmont town · 25,835 people
30.8 Moderate
South San Francisco city · 63,632 people
28.7 Moderate
North Fair Oaks town · 14,687 people
28.1 Moderate
Colma village · 1,507 people
25.2 Moderate
Redwood City city · 88,314 people
23 Low
San Carlos town · 27,002 people
23 Low
San Mateo city · 103,536 people
21 Low
San Bruno town · 41,114 people
21 Low
Menlo Park town · 33,780 people
19.1 Low
Daly City city · 101,005 people
18.8 Low
Broadmoor village · 4,176 people
18.5 Low
Atherton town · 6,914 people
18 Low
East Palo Alto town · 32,784 people
16.5 Low
Burlingame town · 27,573 people
12.8 Low
Brisbane town · 4,282 people
12.8 Low
Moss Beach village
12.8 Low
Foster City town · 30,567 people
12 Low

The score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the community's own record where the source carries one.

Terrain & fuels

Terrain, vegetation and fuels

Terrain is one reason risk changes over short distances. Terrain scores range from 5.0 in Pescadero to 65.0 in La Honda, with a midpoint of 20.0.

Vegetation and fuels also vary sharply. That score reaches 80.0 in Pescadero, while a low of 5.0 appears near Pescadero, and the county midpoint is 20.0.

Taken together, steeper ground and heavier fuels are associated with higher wildfire risk in specific communities, rather than one single county-wide pattern.

20 median terrain score (max 65 near La Honda)
20 median vegetation & fuels score (max 80 near Pescadero)
Fire weather

Fire weather across San Mateo County

Fire-weather scores are elevated across much of the county and vary less than terrain or fuels. They run from 59.3 near Pescadero to 67.2 in Burlingame, with a midpoint of 59.6.

This page does not include any additional countywide fire-weather measure beyond those fire-weather scores. The burn-probability figures shown elsewhere are a different model output, not a fire-weather score.

59.3 lowest fire-weather score — near Pescadero
67.2 highest fire-weather score — near Burlingame
What drives it

Which part of the risk moves, and which doesn't

Risk is not uniform from one part of the county to another. The highest scored location is in Pescadero at 69.0, while the lowest scored location is in East Palo Alto at 12.0.

By tier count, Low is the most common across the places we scored, with 89 locations.

High has 57 locations and Moderate has 32, and no scored locations are in Very High.

Each bar is what one part of the score covers across San Mateo County, on the same 0–100 scale. A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same almost everywhere.

Terrain
5–65 highest near La Honda
Vegetation & fuels
5–80 highest near Pescadero
Hazard zone
10–90 highest near Pescadero
Fire history
5–80 highest near Pescadero
Fire weather
59.3–67.2 highest near Burlingame
Overall score
12–69 highest near Pescadero

The tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50, Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.

Show every number behind these bars
Layer Min Median Max Lowest place Highest place Points
Terrain 5 20 65 Pescadero La Honda 178
Vegetation & fuels 5 20 80 near Pescadero Pescadero 178
Hazard zone 10 10 90 near Pescadero Pescadero 178
Fire history 5 5 80 near Pescadero Pescadero 178
Fire weather 59.3 59.6 67.2 near Pescadero Burlingame 178
Composite 12 25 69 East Palo Alto Pescadero 178

Independently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at 0.17% (90th percentile cell: 0.36%), with a mean conditional flame length of 1.94 ft. 44% of the 23,374 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.

Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).

CAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at 42 of the 178 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas. The USFS grid could not read any of them either, so the hazard weight is renormalised away rather than scored as low.

178 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 100%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.

For a property

What a county range means for one address

For property context, hazard-zone scores peak in Pescadero at 90.0, while the low is 10.0 near Pescadero and the midpoint is 10.0. That pattern points to concentrated high-hazard pockets rather than uniformly high values.

Fire-history scores show a similar concentration: they reach 80.0 in Pescadero, with a low of 5.0 near Pescadero and a midpoint of 5.0.

Property-specific features were not measured at all in this county view. What you do have here is location-based wildfire risk from terrain, fuels, hazard-zone, fire-history, and fire-weather scoring.

Across 178 sampled points in San Mateo County, the score runs from 12 to 69 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers. A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at.

Find out where your San Mateo County parcel sits

Slope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.

Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan

Coverage

ZIP codes we cover in San Mateo County

Every one of the 42 ZIP areas that touch San Mateo County — we run address-level reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and not a score for any property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.

Grouped from 29 of 42 ZIP areas — the rest had no sample point fall inside them. The community shown is the nearest mapped place to the ZIP's centre.

ZIP areas are Census 2020 ZIP Code Tabulation Areas intersecting the county boundary.

Where to go next

San Mateo County wildfire risk in context

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about San Mateo County wildfire risk

Is wildfire risk mostly high across San Mateo County?

Not mostly. Low is the most common tier among the places we scored, with 89 locations, but there are also 57 High-tier locations. So risk is mixed, not one level everywhere.

What are the key fires I should know for this county page?

The largest fire in this county record is Cloverdale Vmp (2010), at 404 acres. The most recent large fire is Whipple (2023).

How much of San Mateo County has burned since 1984?

2,063 acres have burned since 1984, which is 0.4% of the county, across 28 mapped fire perimeters.

Does this page show the same thing as a fire-weather forecast?

No. It includes a fire-weather risk score, but it is not a forecast. It also shows a separate modeled burn-probability view (mean annual burn probability 0.17%), which is different from fire-weather scoring.

Why can two nearby towns look so different on wildfire risk?

Because local factors differ. In this county, terrain and fuels vary a lot by place, and that is associated with different wildfire risk levels between communities.

This page is generated from a San Mateo County data pack assembled on 2026-08-18 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's underwriting judgement. Data versions: fema_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020.

What does your parcel look like, layer by layer?

A county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.

Start with your address →