Wildfire risk in Santa Clara County: where it is highest, and why
Wildfire risk in Santa Clara County spans a wide range across the places we scored. The lowest score is 18.1, the county midpoint is 55.3, and the highest is 80.3.
Santa Clara County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail.
At a glance
Half of Santa Clara County scores High or worse
We scored 167 points across Santa Clara County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 7% of them come out Very High, while 23% are Low. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.
54%
16%
23%
Very High7% · 12 of 167 pointsHigh54% · 91 of 167 pointsModerate16% · 26 of 167 pointsLow23% · 38 of 167 points
Safest end we measured18.1near Los Gatos · Low
Middle of the county55.3High — half of Santa Clara County is above this
Most exposed end we measured80.3near San Jose · Very High
And the federal models agree it is a fire county
Relatively ModerateFEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 97.4 / 100
$10.2M / yrFEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively High
1.14%USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 2.53%
3.69 ftUSFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 85% of the county carries burnable fuel
FEMA NRI also rates Santa Clara County: all-hazards risk Very High · social vulnerability Very Low · community resilience Relatively High · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0059.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.
What does your Santa Clara County address score?
A county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.
Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan
Local context
What the data says about Santa Clara County
Most scored points fall in the High tier. High has 91 points, compared with 38 in Low and 12 in Very High.
For county-wide context, FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Santa Clara County’s wildfire risk as Relatively Moderate, while its wildfire expected annual loss rating is Relatively High.
Fire record
Where the fires actually were
Since 1984, 135,608 acres have burned in Santa Clara County, and that equals 16.3% of the county. The county has had 106 fire perimeters in that period.
The largest fire listed here is the Lick fire in 2007, at 47,748 acres.
The most recent large fire listed here is the Crews fire in 2020, at 5,513 acres. Another major fire in this list is Canyon (2006), at 34,218 acres, and it is marked as partly in the county.
Loma Fire, 2016 — Santa Clara County.
Photo: Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC · Public domain
106mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984
135,608acres inside those perimeters since 1984
16.3%of the county's area, as a share of 3,363 km²
Crews 2020most recent large fire on record
Before 20002000s2010s2020s
Fire perimeters coloured by decade. Select a perimeter for its name, year and size.
Named fires on record
Lick Fire200747,748 acres
Bollinger Ridge Fire196132,866 acres
Crews Fire20205,513 acres
Lexington Fire198513,128 acres
Loma Fire20164,474 acres
Canyon Fire200634,218 acres in totalcrossed into the county
Austrian Gulch Fire19619,071 acres
Saunders Fire19527,219 acres
Perimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · WFIGS Interagency Perimeters · largest on record: Lick 2007.
Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.
Communities
Where in the county you are matters most
In the largest cities, the listed risk levels differ meaningfully: San Jose is 21.1, Santa Clara is 27.1, and Milpitas is 46.0.
Nearby communities can also look very different. Gilroy is 49.6, Los Gatos is 30.7, and Saratoga is 66.2.
For county-level context, FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Santa Clara County as Very High for all-hazards risk, Very Low for social vulnerability, and Relatively High for community resilience.
Saratogatown · 30,153 people
66.2 High
Redwood Estatesvillage
59 High
Morgan Hilltown · 45,952 people
55.8 High
San Martinvillage
53.1 High
Gilroycity · 59,032 people
49.6 Moderate
Milpitascity · 84,196 people
46 Moderate
Los Altostown · 30,089 people
35.2 Moderate
Los Gatostown · 30,222 people
30.7 Moderate
Santa Claracity · 130,365 people
27.1 Moderate
Monte Serenovillage · 3,427 people
23.6 Low
7 more communities in Santa Clara County
San Josecity · 1,013,240 people
21.1 Low
Mountain Viewcity · 82,739 people
21.1 Low
Sunnyvalecity · 152,703 people
18.1 Low
Palo Altocity · 65,364 people
18.1 Low
Cupertinocity · 59,276 people
18.1 Low
Campbelltown · 41,793 people
18.1 Low
Los Altos Hillsvillage · 8,423 people
18.1 Low
The score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale
indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the
community's own record where the source carries one.
Terrain & fuels
Terrain, vegetation and fuels
Terrain scores run from 20.0 up to 65.0, with a county midpoint of 40.0. Both the minimum and maximum terrain values are tied to locations near Gilroy.
Vegetation and fuels show a wider spread, from 5.0 to 80.0, with a midpoint of 65.0. The highest vegetation-and-fuels value is near Morgan Hill.
Hazard zone values are elevated in many scored locations, with a midpoint of 70.0 and a high of 90.0 near Gilroy. Lower values do exist, including 10.0 in Gilroy.
40median terrain score (max 65 near Gilroy)
65median vegetation & fuels score (max 80 near Morgan Hill)
Fire weather
Fire weather across Santa Clara County
Fire weather was measured across the county, and its values are tighter than some other factors: 51.1 at the low end, 60.7 at the midpoint, and 63.2 at the high end.
A separate USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities product shows mean annual burn probability as 1.14%, with 2.53% at the 90th-percentile cell. It also indicates that 84.6% of the county is in places that can burn.
That same USFS product reports a mean conditional flame length of 3.69 feet.
51.1lowest fire-weather score — near Gilroy
63.2highest fire-weather score — near Milpitas
What drives it
Which part of the risk moves, and which doesn't
Risk is not the same from one community to another. Among the places listed, Saratoga is at 66.2, Morgan Hill is at 55.8, and Sunnyvale is at 18.1.
Even inside the county’s broader urban area, scores vary a lot by location. The highest scored point is near San Jose at 80.3, while the lowest scored point is in Los Gatos at 18.1.
Each bar is what one part of the score covers across Santa Clara County, on the same 0–100 scale.
A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same
almost everywhere.
Terrain
20–65highest near Gilroy
Vegetation & fuels
5–80highest near Morgan Hill
Hazard zone
10–90highest near Gilroy
Fire history
5–95highest near Santa Clara
Fire weather
51.1–63.2highest near Milpitas
Overall score
18.1–80.3highest near San Jose
The tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50,
Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.
Show every number behind these bars
Layer
Min
Median
Max
Lowest place
Highest place
Points
Terrain
20
40
65
Gilroy
near Gilroy
167
Vegetation & fuels
5
65
80
Milpitas
near Morgan Hill
167
Hazard zone
10
70
90
Gilroy
near Gilroy
167
Fire history
5
20
95
Gilroy
Santa Clara
167
Fire weather
51.1
60.7
63.2
Gilroy
near Milpitas
167
Composite
18.1
55.3
80.3
Los Gatos
near San Jose
167
Independently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at 1.14% (90th percentile cell: 2.53%), with a mean conditional flame length of 3.69 ft. 85% of the 23,330 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.
Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).
CAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at 2 of the 167 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas. At 1 of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead; at the remaining 1 the hazard weight is renormalised away rather than scored as low.
167 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 100%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.
For a property
What a county range means for one address
At the property-search level, the main county pattern is that High is the most common tier, with 91 scored points. Moderate has 26 points, and Low has 38.
Past fire activity also varies by location in the county’s scoring. Fire-history values range from 5.0 in Gilroy to 95.0 in Santa Clara, with a midpoint of 20.0.
For an individual home, local context matters because county scores stretch from 18.1 to 80.3. That spread is why two addresses in the same county can sit in different risk tiers.
Across 167 sampled points in Santa Clara County, the score runs from
18.1 to 80.3 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers.
A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at.
Find out where your Santa Clara County parcel sits
Slope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.
Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan
Coverage
ZIP codes we cover in Santa Clara County
Every one of the 70 ZIP areas that touch Santa Clara County — we run address-level
reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside
each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and not a score for any
property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.
Frequently asked questions about Santa Clara County wildfire risk
What was the biggest fire listed for Santa Clara County?
The largest fire listed is Lick (2007), at 47,748 acres.
What is the most recent large fire listed?
The most recent large fire listed is Crews (2020), at 5,513 acres.
How much of Santa Clara County has burned since 1984?
16.3% of the county has burned since 1984, totaling 135,608 acres.
Does FEMA rate specific neighborhoods inside the county?
No. The FEMA National Risk Index ratings here are county-wide ratings for Santa Clara County, not ratings of individual neighborhoods or addresses.
Is burn probability the same thing as fire weather?
No. Fire weather is scored separately. The USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities numbers are a modeled burn-probability product, reported here as 1.14% mean annual burn probability and 2.53% at the 90th-percentile cell.
This page is generated from a Santa Clara County data pack assembled on 2026-08-18 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the
county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a
substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's
underwriting judgement.
Data versions: fema_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020.
What does your parcel look like, layer by layer?
A county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.
