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Stanislaus County, California

Wildfire risk in Stanislaus County: where it is highest, and why

Wildfire risk in Stanislaus County varies a lot by location. Across the places we scored, the middle score is 31.9, with values running from 17.6 in Turlock up to 76.6 near Patterson.

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Stanislaus County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail.
At a glance

Half of Stanislaus County scores Moderate or worse

We scored 162 points across Stanislaus County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 1% of them come out Very High, while 38% are Low. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.

Very High 1% · 1 of 162 points High 36% · 59 of 162 points Moderate 25% · 41 of 162 points Low 38% · 61 of 162 points
Safest end we measured 17.6 near Turlock · Low
Middle of the county 31.9 Moderate — half of Stanislaus County is above this
Most exposed end we measured 76.6 near Patterson · Very High

And the federal models agree it is a fire county

Relatively Moderate FEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 95 / 100
$3.7M / yr FEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively Moderate
0.92% USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 2.27%
3.22 ft USFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 86% of the county carries burnable fuel

FEMA NRI also rates Stanislaus County: all-hazards risk Relatively High · social vulnerability Relatively Low · community resilience Relatively Low · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0060.

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.

What does your Stanislaus County address score?

A county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.

Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan

Local context

What the data says about Stanislaus County

At the county level, FEMA’s National Risk Index rates wildfire risk as Relatively Moderate for Stanislaus County. FEMA also rates the county’s all-hazards risk as Relatively High, which is a separate county-wide rating.

Fire record

Where the fires actually were

Since 1984, 116,839 acres have burned in Stanislaus County, and that is 12.1% of the county. The county has had 100 fire perimeters in that period.

The largest fire identified for this county summary is Canyon (2006), at 34,218 acres. The most recent large fire is 2-2 (2025), at 3,463 acres.

Other major fires connected to the county include Lick (2007), 47,748 acres, which was partly in the county, and Bollinger Ridge (1961), 32,866 acres, also partly in the county.

100 mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984
116,839 acres inside those perimeters since 1984
12.1% of the county's area, as a share of 3,906.1 km²
2-2 2025 most recent large fire on record
Named fires on record
  • Canyon Fire200634,218 acres
  • Waverly Fire201811,760 acres
  • Annie Fire200318,210 acres
  • Lick Fire200747,748 acres in totalcrossed into the county
  • Bird_1 Fire20037,876 acres
  • 2-2 Fire20253,463 acres
  • Del_Puerto_2 Fire20035,909 acres
  • Bollinger Ridge Fire196132,866 acres in totalcrossed into the county

Perimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · WFIGS Interagency Perimeters · largest on record: Canyon 2006. Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.

Communities

Where in the county you are matters most

Among the larger communities listed here, Oakdale has the highest typical score at 32.2, while Modesto is lower at 19.9. Patterson is higher than many valley communities at 27.0.

Several other communities cluster in the low-to-mid 20s, including Turlock at 22.5 and Ceres at 22.9. That means buyers and owners can see meaningful score differences even between nearby towns.

Oakdale town · 19,296 people
32.2 Moderate
Patterson town · 20,413 people
27 Moderate
Newman town · 10,224 people
25.5 Moderate
Waterford village · 8,812 people
24.2 Low
Riverdale Park village · 1,128 people
24.1 Low
Ceres town · 45,417 people
22.9 Low
Hughson village · 6,640 people
22.9 Low
Turlock city · 72,740 people
22.5 Low
Denair village · 4,404 people
22.4 Low
Riverbank town · 22,678 people
22 Low
2 more communities in Stanislaus County
Empire village · 4,189 people
20.5 Low
Modesto city · 211,266 people
19.9 Low

The score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the community's own record where the source carries one.

Terrain & fuels

Terrain, vegetation and fuels

Terrain is one part of the county’s wildfire risk pattern. Terrain scores are at 20.0 through much of the scored area, with a high of 65.0 near Patterson.

Vegetation and fuels show a wider spread. Scores go from 20.0 in Turlock up to 80.0 near Patterson, with a middle value of 46.0 across the places we scored.

20 median terrain score (max 65 near Patterson)
46 median vegetation & fuels score (max 80 near Patterson)
Fire weather

Fire weather across Stanislaus County

Fire weather was measured across the county, and it stays elevated across locations. Scores run from 53.8 near Oakdale to 71.2 in Modesto, with a middle value of 63.2.

A separate USFS wildfire model estimates mean annual burn probability at 0.92%, with a 90th-percentile cell value of 2.27%. That model is not a fire-weather measure; it is a modeled burn-probability product.

53.8 lowest fire-weather score — near Oakdale
71.2 highest fire-weather score — near Modesto
What drives it

Which part of the risk moves, and which doesn't

Risk is not concentrated in just one tier. Among scored locations, the largest count is in Low (61 points), followed closely by High (59 points), with 41 in Moderate and 1 in Very High.

That mixed pattern shows up on the ground. The highest overall scores are near Patterson, while one of the lowest points is in Turlock.

Each bar is what one part of the score covers across Stanislaus County, on the same 0–100 scale. A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same almost everywhere.

Terrain
20–65 highest near Patterson
Vegetation & fuels
20–80 highest near Patterson
Hazard zone
10–90 highest near Newman
Fire history
5–95 highest near Patterson
Fire weather
53.8–71.2 highest near Modesto
Overall score
17.6–76.6 highest near Patterson

The tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50, Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.

Show every number behind these bars
Layer Min Median Max Lowest place Highest place Points
Terrain 20 20 65 Newman near Patterson 162
Vegetation & fuels 20 46 80 Turlock near Patterson 162
Hazard zone 10 10 90 Newman near Newman 162
Fire history 5 5 95 near Newman near Patterson 162
Fire weather 53.8 63.2 71.2 near Oakdale Modesto 162
Composite 17.6 31.9 76.6 Turlock near Patterson 162

Independently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at 0.92% (90th percentile cell: 2.27%), with a mean conditional flame length of 3.22 ft. 86% of the 15,470 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.

Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).

CAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at 1 of the 162 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas. At 1 of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead.

162 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 100%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.

For a property

What a county range means for one address

Two mapped factors that often matter for a property’s area are hazard zone and local fire history. Hazard-zone scores range from 10.0 to 90.0 in the county scoring, and fire-history scores range from 5.0 to 95.0.

A separate property-condition layer was not measured at all in these county results. So this page shows area wildfire risk around properties, but not a countywide score for the condition of an individual structure.

Across 162 sampled points in Stanislaus County, the score runs from 17.6 to 76.6 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers. A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at.

Find out where your Stanislaus County parcel sits

Slope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.

Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan

Coverage

ZIP codes we cover in Stanislaus County

Every one of the 41 ZIP areas that touch Stanislaus County — we run address-level reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and not a score for any property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.

Grouped from 24 of 41 ZIP areas — the rest had no sample point fall inside them. The community shown is the nearest mapped place to the ZIP's centre.

ZIP areas are Census 2020 ZIP Code Tabulation Areas intersecting the county boundary.

Where to go next

Stanislaus County wildfire risk in context

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about Stanislaus County wildfire risk

Is wildfire risk basically the same across Stanislaus County?

No. Scores range from 17.6 in Turlock to 76.6 near Patterson, and the scored points are split across Low, Moderate, High, and Very High tiers.

What does FEMA say about county-wide wildfire risk?

FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Stanislaus County’s wildfire risk as Relatively Moderate. FEMA rates the county’s all-hazards risk as Relatively High.

Which fire is the largest, and which one is the most recent large fire?

The largest fire identified for this county summary is Canyon (2006), at 34,218 acres. The most recent large fire is 2-2 (2025), at 3,463 acres.

Does this page include fire weather?

Yes. Fire-weather scores are included, from 53.8 near Oakdale to 71.2 in Modesto. The USFS burn-probability values shown here are a different modeled product, not fire weather.

Does this score tell me the condition of one specific home?

Not by itself. A separate property-condition layer was not measured at all in these county results, so the page reflects area wildfire risk rather than an inspection of an individual structure.

This page is generated from a Stanislaus County data pack assembled on 2026-08-18 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's underwriting judgement. Data versions: fema_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020.

What does your parcel look like, layer by layer?

A county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.

Start with your address →