Wildfire risk in Stanislaus County varies a lot by location. Across the places we scored, the middle score is 31.9, with values running from 17.6 in Turlock up to 76.6 near Patterson.
We scored 162 points across Stanislaus County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 1% of them come out Very High, while 38% are Low. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.
FEMA NRI also rates Stanislaus County: all-hazards risk Relatively High · social vulnerability Relatively Low · community resilience Relatively Low · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0060.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.
What does your Stanislaus County address score?
A county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.
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At the county level, FEMA’s National Risk Index rates wildfire risk as Relatively Moderate for Stanislaus County. FEMA also rates the county’s all-hazards risk as Relatively High, which is a separate county-wide rating.
Since 1984, 116,839 acres have burned in Stanislaus County, and that is 12.1% of the county. The county has had 100 fire perimeters in that period.
The largest fire identified for this county summary is Canyon (2006), at 34,218 acres. The most recent large fire is 2-2 (2025), at 3,463 acres.
Other major fires connected to the county include Lick (2007), 47,748 acres, which was partly in the county, and Bollinger Ridge (1961), 32,866 acres, also partly in the county.
Fire perimeters coloured by decade. Select a perimeter for its name, year and size.
Perimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · WFIGS Interagency Perimeters · largest on record: Canyon 2006. Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.
Among the larger communities listed here, Oakdale has the highest typical score at 32.2, while Modesto is lower at 19.9. Patterson is higher than many valley communities at 27.0.
Several other communities cluster in the low-to-mid 20s, including Turlock at 22.5 and Ceres at 22.9. That means buyers and owners can see meaningful score differences even between nearby towns.
The score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the community's own record where the source carries one.
Terrain is one part of the county’s wildfire risk pattern. Terrain scores are at 20.0 through much of the scored area, with a high of 65.0 near Patterson.
Vegetation and fuels show a wider spread. Scores go from 20.0 in Turlock up to 80.0 near Patterson, with a middle value of 46.0 across the places we scored.
Fire weather was measured across the county, and it stays elevated across locations. Scores run from 53.8 near Oakdale to 71.2 in Modesto, with a middle value of 63.2.
A separate USFS wildfire model estimates mean annual burn probability at 0.92%, with a 90th-percentile cell value of 2.27%. That model is not a fire-weather measure; it is a modeled burn-probability product.
Risk is not concentrated in just one tier. Among scored locations, the largest count is in Low (61 points), followed closely by High (59 points), with 41 in Moderate and 1 in Very High.
That mixed pattern shows up on the ground. The highest overall scores are near Patterson, while one of the lowest points is in Turlock.
Each bar is what one part of the score covers across Stanislaus County, on the same 0–100 scale. A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same almost everywhere.
The tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50, Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.
| Layer | Min | Median | Max | Lowest place | Highest place | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrain | 20 | 20 | 65 | Newman | near Patterson | 162 |
| Vegetation & fuels | 20 | 46 | 80 | Turlock | near Patterson | 162 |
| Hazard zone | 10 | 10 | 90 | Newman | near Newman | 162 |
| Fire history | 5 | 5 | 95 | near Newman | near Patterson | 162 |
| Fire weather | 53.8 | 63.2 | 71.2 | near Oakdale | Modesto | 162 |
| Composite | 17.6 | 31.9 | 76.6 | Turlock | near Patterson | 162 |
Independently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at 0.92% (90th percentile cell: 2.27%), with a mean conditional flame length of 3.22 ft. 86% of the 15,470 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.
Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).
CAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at 1 of the 162 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas. At 1 of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead.
162 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 100%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.
Two mapped factors that often matter for a property’s area are hazard zone and local fire history. Hazard-zone scores range from 10.0 to 90.0 in the county scoring, and fire-history scores range from 5.0 to 95.0.
A separate property-condition layer was not measured at all in these county results. So this page shows area wildfire risk around properties, but not a countywide score for the condition of an individual structure.
Find out where your Stanislaus County parcel sits
Slope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.
Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan
Every one of the 41 ZIP areas that touch Stanislaus County — we run address-level reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and not a score for any property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.
High 2 ZIPs
Moderate 7 ZIPs
Low 15 ZIPs
No sampled point inside 17 ZIPs
94550 · 95023 · 95135 · 95228 Oakdale · 95236 Oakdale · 95303 Denair · 95304 Riverdale Park · 95324 Turlock · 95327 Oakdale · 95328 Hughson · 95337 Riverdale Park · 95350 Modesto · 95351 Modesto · 95366 Riverbank · 95368 Modesto · 95369 Waterford · 95374 Newman
Grouped from 24 of 41 ZIP areas — the rest had no sample point fall inside them. The community shown is the nearest mapped place to the ZIP's centre.
ZIP areas are Census 2020 ZIP Code Tabulation Areas intersecting the county boundary.
No. Scores range from 17.6 in Turlock to 76.6 near Patterson, and the scored points are split across Low, Moderate, High, and Very High tiers.
FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Stanislaus County’s wildfire risk as Relatively Moderate. FEMA rates the county’s all-hazards risk as Relatively High.
The largest fire identified for this county summary is Canyon (2006), at 34,218 acres. The most recent large fire is 2-2 (2025), at 3,463 acres.
Yes. Fire-weather scores are included, from 53.8 near Oakdale to 71.2 in Modesto. The USFS burn-probability values shown here are a different modeled product, not fire weather.
Not by itself. A separate property-condition layer was not measured at all in these county results, so the page reflects area wildfire risk rather than an inspection of an individual structure.
A county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.
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